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主题：金融观察：全球股市周四大幅上扬
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Latest Corporate Figures Fuel Wave of Optimism
全球股市周四大幅上扬 Equity markets around the world powered to fresh 2009 highs yesterday as a global wave of forecast-beating corporate earnings helped investors put aside concerns about potential asset bubbles in China.
By midday in New York, the S&P 500 was up 1.6 per cent at a new eight-month high and within striking distance of the 1,000 level. The benchmark has now rallied nearly 50 per cent from its low in March.
However, in spite of the S&P's sharp gain, the Vix index of equity volatility, a closely-watched measure of risk appetite often called Wall Street's “fear gauge”, was little changed at 25.4.
In Europe, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index climbed 2.2 per cent to its best close since November and the Nikkei 225 Average in Tokyo rose 0.5 per cent to a nine-month high.
Underpinning the day's gains was a series of positive earnings reports and upbeat outlooks from the likes of Honda Motor, AstraZeneca and Motorola which fuelled hopes of a broad-based economic recovery gaining traction.
“It is clear from the corporate pronouncements that in the vast majority of cases, companies' assessment of the situation is that the worst is over and that the outlook for the second half is improving, even though they remain low key with respect to the pace of the improvement,” said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at UniCredit.
Adding to the positive mood were data showing a drop in continued claims for jobless benefits in the US.
Emerging market equities also enjoyed a positive session as concerns about Chinese central bank policy eased. The People's Bank of China moved to calm fears about an imminent tightening by reiterating that its monetary stance would remain unchanged and it was not planning to reintroduce lending controls.
But Flemming Nielsen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, argued that the statement was not a guarantee against the PBoC starting to remove some of the accommodation in monetary policy.
He said “extraordinarily loose” would probably be a more fitting way of describing China's current policy than its own description of “moderately loose”.
“Hence, making monetary policy less accommodative would not be inconsistent with maintaining the current monetary policy stance,” he said. Although he added: “A major change in monetary policy is unlikely to happen this year.”
The Shanghai Composite index rallied 1.7 per cent, after sliding 5 per cent on Wednesday in its worst one-day fall for eight months. In Russia, the Micex index climbed 6.1 per cent to its highest for six weeks and Brazil was up 2 per cent.
The strong tone in equity markets helped fuel gains for other “risky” assets. Credit spreads continued to tighten, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover index of mostly junk-rated credits narrowing a hefty 37 basis points to 616bp.
全球股市周四大幅上升，纷纷创下2009年新高。一波超出预期的公司盈利，帮助投资者把中国出现资产泡沫的可能性暂时置之脑后。
截至纽约市场午盘，标准普尔500指数上升1.6%，达到8个月新高，并逼近1000点大关。该基准股指已从3月的低谷上涨近50%。
不过，尽管标普指数飙升，但衡量股市波定性的Vix指数却几乎没有变化，仍为25.4。Vix往往有华尔街“恐慌指标”之称，作为一项衡量风险偏好的指标，它受到密切关注。
在欧洲，富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)上升2.2%，收于去年11月以来的最高点位。同时，东京的日经225指数创下9个月新高。
支撑周四涨势的，是一系列积极的业绩报告和乐观的前景预测，它们来自本田汽车(Honda Motor)、阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)和摩托罗拉(Motorola)等各行业大公司。这些利好消息提振了人们对于一场全面经济复苏正蓄势待发的期盼。
“从公司宣布的消息看，很明显，在绝大多数情况下，企业对形势的评估是，最糟糕的时刻已经过去，下半年的前景正在好转，即便它们对好转的速度仍保持低调，”意大利联合信贷银行(UniCredit)股票策略师塔莫•格里特菲尔德(Tammo Greetfeld)表示。
周四另有数据显示，美国持续申领失业救济金人数有所下降，这进一步推升了市场上的积极情绪。
随着人们对中国央行政策的担忧有所缓解，新兴市场股市周四也普遍上升。中国央行采取行动，以求平息市场对其即将收紧政策的担忧。该央行重申，其货币政策倾向将保持不变，而且没有计划再度出台放贷控制措施。
但是，丹麦银行(Danske Bank)高级分析师弗莱明•尼尔森(Flemming Nielsen)辩称，这项声明并不能保证中国央行不会着手去除货币政策中的某些宽松元素。
他表示，要形容中国目前的货币政策，更合适的字眼是“异常宽松”，而非中国央行自己所称的“适度宽松”。
“因此，降低货币政策的宽松程度，并不会与保持目前的货币政策倾向发生矛盾，”他说。不过，他补充说：“今年内货币政策不太可能出现重大变动。”
上证综指周四上升1.7%。此前该指数在周三下滑5%，为8个月来最大单日跌幅。在俄罗斯，Micex指数周四上升6.1%，达到6周来的最高点位。巴西股指周四上升2%。
全球股市的牛气，帮助推动其它“高风险”资产也呈现涨势。信贷息差继续收窄。主要跟踪垃圾信贷的Markit iTraxx Crossover指数大幅收窄37个基点，至616基点。 |
楼主 Date: 2009-07-31 09:27:16
