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主题：金融观察：德国商业景气指数大幅攀升
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German Index Sees Business Mood Brighten
德国商业景气指数大幅攀升 German businesses' expectations about the six months ahead have seen the biggest improvement for at least 18 years, as a generally brighter mood points to robust third- quarter growth in Europe's biggest economy.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said yesterday that its closely watched business climate index had risen for a fifth consecutive month, from 87.4 in July to 90.5 in August. That was the highest since September 2008, before the intensification of the global economic crisis following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The part of the survey covering expectations about the next six months rose even faster, from 90.4 to 95.0 – the biggest monthly rise since comparable data started in 1991.
There was also a second monthly rise in businesses' assessment of current conditions, which as recently as June stood at the lowest level since the survey started in 1991.
With the Ifo index regarded as offering a guide to future trends in activity, its latest rise reinforced the view that Germany's recovery has gained momentum in the current quarter.
However, worries remain that the country's banking sector is failing to provide the credit needed to oil the wheels of recovery. Peer Steinbrück, finance minister, said banks could make more use of medium-term loans from KfW, the government-owned development bank, to expand their own lending to corporate clients.
The volume of such lending from KfW shrank sharply last year but Ulrich Schürenkrämer, a member of Deutsche Bank's management committee in Germany, said yesterday that demand was increasing for such loans.
Mr Steinbrück – who previously threatened action against the banks if they did not expand lending – told the Handelsblatt newspaper he could not use “state compulsion” to expand credit. The minister is due to meet finance and corporate leaders next week to discuss the supply of credit to the economy.
德国企业对未来六个月的预期呈现至少18年来最大幅度的改善。总体上更为乐观的情绪，预示着这个欧洲最大的经济体在第三季度将强劲增长。
慕尼黑Ifo 经济研究院昨日称，其倍受关注的商业景气指数连续第五个月上升，从7月份的87.4升至8月份的90.5。这是2008年9月以来的最高水平，当时正是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭之后、全球经济危机即将深化的前夕。
针对今后六个月的预期指数升幅更大，从90.4 升至95.0，呈现自1991年开始编制此类数据以来最大的月度升幅。企业对现状的评估指数也连续第二个月上升，就在今年6月份，该指数还处于1991年开始调查以来的最低水平。
鉴于Ifo指数被视为有关未来经济活动趋势的指引，其最新的上升强化了人们的看法，即德国经济复苏势头在当前季度有所增强。
不过，人们仍担心的是，德国银行业未能提供足够信贷，以推动复苏的车轮向前滚动。德国财政部长佩尔·施泰因布吕克(Peer Steinbruck)表示，各银行可以加大利用国有的德国复兴信贷银行(KfW)的中期贷款，以扩大它们对自己企业客户的放贷。
KfW此类放贷的数量去年大幅缩水，但德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在德国的管理委员会成员之一乌尔里希·舒伦克莱默(Ulrich Schurenkramer)昨日表示，对此类贷款的需求正在上升。
施泰因布吕克以前曾威胁称，如果各银行不扩大放贷，他将对它们采取行动。他对《德国商报》(Handelsblatt)表示，他不能动用“国家强制力”来扩大信贷。他将在下周会晤金融界和企业界领袖，讨论为德国经济提供信贷的问题。
译者/和风 |
楼主 Date: 2009-08-27 08:57:23
financial
